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History cannot be used to reliably predict the future, and data-driven extrapolation from past trends or ‘analysis by analogy’—practices rife in the business and financial sectors—are particularly hazardous because they can give decisionmakers an unjustified sense of confidence. However, history is vital to understanding present conditions; without such knowledge, strategic policy planning efforts are likely to go awry.
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Reblogged from futuramb|4 notes |#